June 2018 preview: Historical catastrophe activity

June 1, 2018 / 1 min read

In the United States, summer fun begins by June 1, and the new month also marks the official start of the Atlantic Basin hurricane season. We could see a slightly above-average storm season, after last year’s major hurricanes in Texas, Florida, and Puerto Rico.

The current forecast calls for three or four Atlantic hurricanes that may hit the U.S. this season, and updates to existing forecasts will be released in the upcoming weeks by subject matter experts.

PCS June catastrophe forecast

In total, meteorologists currently forecast 12 to 15 tropical storms to form in the basin between June 1, 2018, and November 30, 2018, the official end of hurricane season.

June is often an active month for catastrophes. For the last ten years, the average June catastrophe frequency has been five events, and 2017 was no exception. In June 2017, PCS® designated five catastrophes resulting in 409,300 claims and nearly $4 billion in insured losses. But the average over the last decade has been less than that. June catastrophes generated an average of 354,000 claims and insured losses of $2.3 billion from 2008 through 2017.

June catastrophe data

June 2012 represented another outlier in the decade, with seven catastrophes generating 799,000 claims and insured losses of approximately $4.7 billion.